Month: November 2024

In my last post I explained why I thought that Trump would lose.  As it has turned out, he won bigly instead.

The English-speaking world is swarming presently with smart people’s attempts to explain this victory. That makes me feel a little better.  Since none of them agree, it means that all but one of them are wrong, and, entre nous, I have my doubts about that remaining one.

Personally I think that it came down to two things.  First, the economy and third-world migration had a broad impact on people’s dissatisfaction.  Second, Harris’s profound stupidity and repulsiveness were coupled with her identity as 50% of the team who caused this dissatisfaction.

I obviously misjudged these factors when I predicted a Trump loss.  I overlooked the last-mentioned factor, that voters tend to reject the party in power when things are looking bad.  I also wasn’t looking too much at the economy, which means the price of eggs. Also, I probably overestimated the attrition from earlier Trumpsters’ disappointment with his first tour of duty.  Be they as disappointed as I thought, they, like me, had little choice but to pull the lever once again.

The victory was clear enough to stifle any challenges, but it was still close enough to 50-50 to leave me thinking that it’s far too early to be singing “Happy Days Are Here Again.”  Trump’s recent appointment of Tom Homan as border czar (a title without definitions) is a good sign.

Perhaps the lawfare they’ve waged against him and the assassination attempts have beaten some resolve into him.

It’s a good thing that nobody reads what I write here. That headline would really torque a lot of people off.

There are three opinions about where we stand now, three days before D-Day:

1. Trump’s gonna win
2. Trump’s gonna lose
3. It’s too close to call

The variety of opinions shows that they aren’t based on objective data.  People are guessing.  So am I.

Against my position one might argue:

1. Trump’s stunts are going over well (McDonald’s, the garbage truck, Joe Rogan, etc.)
2. Harris is even more repulsive than Hillary was.
3. A lot of people are waking up to the wokeism menace and migrant disaster.

I would reply, though, that the elderly have recognized wokeism easily.  They voted for Trump before.  Now they’re dead.  If enough new converts are minted to replace them, that will only leave us where we were in 2020.  And although Harris is profoundly, deeply repulsive, lefty voters know that she would be surrounded by others who do have a brain, so her incompetence would be reined in from doing much damage.   (Notice how Dotage Joe’s absence from the presidency has produced no noticeable change in anything.)

I’ve heard wide-eyed chirpings about how Trump is gaining black voters.  This won’t change anything.  He had a lot of black voters before.  Suppose he got 5% more this time.  Blacks are only 12% of the population.  What’s 5% of 12%? it’s 6/10ths of 1%.  And guess what?  Most blacks live in red states, so their votes neither help nor hurt the candidate.  In Tennessee the blacks could vote 100% for the Dim candidate without gaining one electoral vote.  The swing states are all that matter, and no matter how many blacks vote Republican, they are sure to be a tiny percentage of a small percentage of the voters.

The mainstream media is becoming more vicious by the day and I expect them to have some effect on swing voters.  Trump/Vance have missed a lot of opportunities to “play their hand” to greater advantage.  Their followers are devoted and excited. I just don’t think that there are enough of them.

This is easy for me to write.  I can’t lose.  If Trump loses, I look wise and keen.  If he wins, I get Trump for president.